Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tyson Pedro won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 4, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Tyson Pedro wins(60.5%)
Actual result: Tyson Pedro wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Tyson Pedro has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tyson Pedro has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tyson Pedro
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tyson Pedro
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23W
KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23L
vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tyson PedroMetricPaul Craig
2.90
Strikes / min
2.50
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
56%
Strike defense
43%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
1.43
50%
Takedown defense
35%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tyson PedroPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.22.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Tyson Pedro
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20