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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
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Elo1537
Umar Nurmagomedov
Elo1545
David Martinez

Umar NurmagomedovvsDavid MartinezUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Fight begins in
Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsDavid Martinez: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

The model's pick for this fight is locked

Umar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez is on the undercard. Headliner picks are free — unlock the full card with a $9 monthly Fight Detective membership.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • David Martinez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • David Martinez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
David Martinez
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1537
Elo
1545
30
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'5"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25
W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26
latest
David MartinezW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Mar 25
W
vs Rob Font · Sep 25
W
vs Marlon Vera · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricDavid Martinez
3.86
Strikes / min
4.82
1.86
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
61%
Strike defense
69%
4.03
TDs / 15 min
0.60
79%
Takedown defense
100%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.00evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)David Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -8.1|Blue +8.1
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO65%

Historical win share: David Martinez earned 33% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission35%

Historical win share: Umar Nurmagomedov earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9

David Martinez

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3