Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 25, 2025·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mario Bautista enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Umar Nurmagomedov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Umar Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Mario Bautista
Blue Corner
-620
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+460
(18%)
30
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Umar Nurmagomedov
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26Mario BautistaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23W
vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Umar NurmagomedovMetricMario Bautista
3.86
Strikes / min
5.30
1.86
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
61%
Strike defense
54%
4.03
TDs / 15 min
1.91
79%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.00evenly matched on net striking+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Umar NurmagomedovMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-37.637.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Umar Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9
Mario Bautista
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14