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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
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Elo1537
Umar Nurmagomedov
Elo1518
Song Yadong

Umar NurmagomedovvsSong YadongUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Saturday, August 29, 2026Shanghai, China

Fight begins in
Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsSong Yadong: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

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Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Song Yadong
Blue Corner
-516
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+373
(21%)
1537
Elo
1518
30
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25
W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26
latest
Song Yadong
oldest →
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23
L
vs Petr Yan · Mar 24
W
vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25
L
vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26
W
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricSong Yadong
3.86
Strikes / min
4.42
1.86
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
61%
Strike defense
55%
4.03
TDs / 15 min
0.78
79%
Takedown defense
73%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.00Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.48
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Song Yadong(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.2|Blue -19.2
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO66%

Historical win share: Song Yadong earned 42% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission34%

Historical win share: Umar Nurmagomedov earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights17