Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Uran Satybaldiev won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 23, 2025·Shanghai, Hebei, China, China
Model Prediction: Uran Satybaldiev wins(53.1%)
Actual result: Uran Satybaldiev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Uran Satybaldiev threatens submissions; Diyar Nurgozhay has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Diyar Nurgozhay has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diyar Nurgozhay has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
- Uran Satybaldiev has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Uran Satybaldiev
Red Corner
VS
Diyar Nurgozhay
Blue Corner
-102
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-116
(54%)
31
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Uran Satybaldiev
oldest →latest
L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 25Diyar Nurgozhay
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Mar 25W
vs Rafael Tobias · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Uran SatybaldievMetricDiyar Nurgozhay
2.14
Strikes / min
4.52
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
44%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.37
50%
Takedown defense
80%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.52Δ 3.23 — meaningful gap+1.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Uran SatybaldievDiyar Nurgozhay
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Uran Satybaldiev(2 fights)Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.0-5.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Uran Satybaldiev
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights2
Diyar Nurgozhay
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3