Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 11, 2011·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupVagner Rocha: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Vagner Rocha wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Vagner Rocha
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
+325
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-400
(80%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vagner RochaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vagner RochaMetricDonald Cerrone
2.64
Strikes / min
4.41
4.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
48%
Strike defense
53%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
1.16
50%
Takedown defense
73%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.86Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Vagner RochaDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vagner Rocha(4 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-19.519.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Vagner Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37