Welterweight
3 Rounds
Geoff Neal won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 6, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(61.3%)
Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Geoff Neal has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Geoff Neal
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vicente LuqueL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vicente LuqueMetricGeoff Neal
4.80
Strikes / min
5.02
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
5.50
51%
Strike defense
57%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
0.54
59%
Takedown defense
87%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Vicente LuqueGeoff Neal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.1-64.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-126.0126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Vicente Luque
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14