Welterweight
3 Rounds
Joel Alvarez won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(61.8%)
Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Vicente Luque is a KO finisher (53% of wins). Joel Alvarez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
+410
(20%)
Vegas Odds
-650
(87%)
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vicente Luque
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 22W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25Joel AlvarezW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · Nov 21L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vicente LuqueMetricJoel Alvarez
4.80
Strikes / min
4.53
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
51%
Strike defense
53%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
0.18
59%
Takedown defense
46%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Vicente LuqueJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.4-17.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-175.0175.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Vicente Luque
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10