Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paul Craig won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 21, 2019·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupVinicius Moreira: Submission grapplervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vinicius Moreira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Vinicius Moreira
Red Corner
VS
Paul Craig
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vinicius MoreiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Jan 19L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jun 19L
KOvs Ike Villanueva · Jan 21Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vinicius MoreiraMetricPaul Craig
3.15
Strikes / min
2.50
5.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
43%
Strike defense
43%
1.97
TDs / 15 min
1.43
0%
Takedown defense
35%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.92Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Vinicius MoreiraPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vinicius Moreira(4 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.418.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Vinicius Moreira
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Paul Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20