Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ildemar Alcantara won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 19, 2013·Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Wagner Prado wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Ildemar Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ildemar Alcantara has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Prado (53.5%).
- Ildemar Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Wagner Prado
Red Corner
VS
Ildemar Alcantara
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
39
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Wagner Prado
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Phil Davis · Oct 12Ildemar Alcantara
oldest →latest
L
vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13W
vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14L
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14W
vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15L
vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Wagner PradoMetricIldemar Alcantara
1.72
Strikes / min
1.93
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
50%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.00
22%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.34evenly matched on net striking-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Wagner PradoIldemar Alcantara
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Wagner Prado(2 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.114.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Wagner Prado
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2
Ildemar Alcantara
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7