Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Wagner Silva has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Wagner Silva
oldest →L
SUBvs Ricardo Abreu · May 14 Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Wagner SilvaMetricColby Covington
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.18Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Wagner SilvaColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Wagner Silva(2 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -137.9|Blue +137.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Wagner SilvaTargetColby Covington
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:02
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:52Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:19Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
