Welterweight
3 Rounds
Warlley Alves won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsColby Covington: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(54.5%)
Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Warlley Alves
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
35
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricColby Covington
3.04
Strikes / min
3.81
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
50%
Strike defense
54%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
3.64
62%
Takedown defense
68%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Warlley AlvesColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Warlley Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17