Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2016·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsKamaru Usman: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(58.6%)
Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
- Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Warlley Alves
Red Corner
VS
Kamaru Usman
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
35
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24Kamaru Usman
oldest →latest
W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricKamaru Usman
3.04
Strikes / min
4.16
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
50%
Strike defense
55%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
2.79
62%
Takedown defense
89%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap+1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Warlley AlvesKamaru Usman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.30.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Warlley Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Kamaru Usman
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19