Welterweight
3 Rounds
Nicolas Dalby won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 21, 2023·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Warlley Alves
Red Corner
VS
Nicolas Dalby
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
35
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24Nicolas Dalby
oldest →latest
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23W
KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24L
KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25W
vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricNicolas Dalby
3.04
Strikes / min
3.88
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.51
50%
Strike defense
52%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
0.90
62%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Warlley AlvesNicolas Dalby
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.8-32.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+392.0-392.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Warlley Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Nicolas Dalby
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14