Welterweight
3 Rounds
Randy Brown won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, November 16, 2019·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsRandy Brown: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Randy Brown wins(54.0%)
Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Warlley Alves
Red Corner
VS
Randy Brown
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24Randy Brown
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Feb 24W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24L
vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24W
KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25L
KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricRandy Brown
3.04
Strikes / min
4.39
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
50%
Strike defense
53%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
0.71
62%
Takedown defense
74%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap+1.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Warlley AlvesRandy Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.6-32.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Warlley Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Randy Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights21