Welterweight
3 Rounds
Warlley Alves won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 11, 2019·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(52.1%)
Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Warlley Alves
Red Corner
VS
Sergio Moraes
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
35
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Warlley AlvesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21L
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23L
vs Abus Magomedov · May 24Sergio MoraesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Warlley AlvesMetricSergio Moraes
3.04
Strikes / min
2.42
3.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.22
TDs / 15 min
1.20
62%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91evenly matched on net striking-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Warlley AlvesSergio Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Warlley Alves(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.132.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Warlley Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Sergio Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13