Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nik Lentz won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2011·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupWaylon Lowe: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Waylon Lowe wins(59.9%)
Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Waylon Lowe has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Waylon Lowe (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Waylon Lowe
Red Corner
VS
Nik Lentz
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
45
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
174 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Waylon LoweW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Melvin Guillard · May 10W
vs Steve Lopez · Sep 10W
vs Willamy Freire · Jan 11Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Waylon LoweMetricNik Lentz
1.88
Strikes / min
3.44
2.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
53%
Strike defense
50%
4.47
TDs / 15 min
3.30
83%
Takedown defense
43%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Waylon LoweNik Lentz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Waylon Lowe(4 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.232.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-3.43.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Waylon Lowe
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights4
Nik Lentz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22