Flyweight
3 Rounds
Justin Scoggins won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 15, 2014·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Justin Scoggins wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Will Campuzano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
- Will Campuzano has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Will Campuzano
Red Corner
VS
Justin Scoggins
Blue Corner
+550
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-675
(87%)
39
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Will CampuzanoL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Nick Pace · Dec 10L
vs Chris Cariaso · Jan 11L
vs Sergio Pettis · Nov 13Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joshua Sampo · May 15W
vs Ray Borg · Feb 16L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
vs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Will CampuzanoMetricJustin Scoggins
2.43
Strikes / min
3.56
3.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
57%
Strike defense
55%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
3.42
48%
Takedown defense
82%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.39Δ 2.79 — meaningful gap+1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Will CampuzanoJustin Scoggins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Will Campuzano(4 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-61.861.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+20.0-20.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Will Campuzano
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Justin Scoggins
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9