Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Ortega won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 24, 2024·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(65.3%)
Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Ortega enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Yair Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Brian Ortega
Blue Corner
-166
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
33
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yair Rodriguez
oldest →latest
L
vs Max Holloway · Nov 21W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25Brian OrtegaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yair RodriguezMetricBrian Ortega
4.65
Strikes / min
3.84
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
6.38
52%
Strike defense
49%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.93
59%
Takedown defense
54%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.87Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yair RodriguezBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+29.9-29.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-357.0357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Yair Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13