Featherweight
3 Rounds
Yair Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(73.8%)
Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yair Rodriguez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Yair Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Charles Rosa
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
33
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yair Rodriguez
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25Charles RosaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs TJ Brown · Jan 22L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yair RodriguezMetricCharles Rosa
4.65
Strikes / min
3.08
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
52%
Strike defense
47%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
1.67
59%
Takedown defense
38%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.87Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-0.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yair RodriguezCharles Rosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.5-14.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+64.0-64.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Yair Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15
Charles Rosa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13