Featherweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Yair Rodriguez won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 11, 2023·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(68.0%)
Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yair Rodriguez has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Yair Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Josh Emmett
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
33
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yair Rodriguez
oldest →latest
L
vs Max Holloway · Nov 21W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yair RodriguezMetricJosh Emmett
4.65
Strikes / min
3.67
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
52%
Strike defense
59%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
1.07
59%
Takedown defense
43%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.87Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yair RodriguezJosh Emmett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.214.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Yair Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15
Josh Emmett
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17