Lightweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Case won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 7, 2015·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupYan Cabral: WrestlervsJohnny Case: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Yan Cabral wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yan Cabral threatens submissions; Johnny Case has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Johnny Case has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Yan Cabral
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Case
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
43
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yan Cabral
oldest →latest
W
vs David Mitchell · Oct 13L
vs Zak Cummings · May 14W
SUBvs Naoyuki Kotani · Oct 14L
KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16Johnny CaseL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14W
KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15W
vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yan CabralMetricJohnny Case
2.02
Strikes / min
3.95
1.98
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
62%
Strike defense
61%
2.89
TDs / 15 min
1.70
37%
Takedown defense
72%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.04Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yan CabralJohnny Case
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yan Cabral(5 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.536.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+231.0-231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Yan Cabral
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Johnny Case
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6