Lightweight
3 Rounds
Yan Cabral won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 25, 2014·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Yan Cabral wins(73.2%)
Actual result: Yan Cabral wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yan Cabral enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yan Cabral threatens submissions; Naoyuki Kotani has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Yan Cabral has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Naoyuki Kotani (53.5%).
- Yan Cabral has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Yan Cabral
Red Corner
VS
Naoyuki Kotani
Blue Corner
-700
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+568
(15%)
43
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yan CabralL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Mitchell · Oct 13L
vs Zak Cummings · May 14L
vs Johnny Case · Nov 15L
KOvs Reza Madadi · May 16Naoyuki KotaniL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Norman Parke · Jul 14L
vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yan CabralMetricNaoyuki Kotani
2.02
Strikes / min
1.02
1.98
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
62%
Strike defense
50%
2.89
TDs / 15 min
0.83
37%
Takedown defense
46%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.04Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yan CabralNaoyuki Kotani
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yan Cabral(5 fights)Naoyuki Kotani(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.1-14.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Yan Cabral
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Naoyuki Kotani
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3