Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, May 22, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupYan Xiaonan: Well-roundedvsCarla Esparza: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yan Xiaonan has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Yan Xiaonan
Red Corner
VS
Carla Esparza
Blue Corner
-137
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+117
(46%)
36
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'1"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yan Xiaonan
oldest →latest
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22W
KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23L
vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yan XiaonanMetricCarla Esparza
4.69
Strikes / min
2.19
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.84
TDs / 15 min
3.28
64%
Takedown defense
47%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.46Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap-0.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Yan XiaonanCarla Esparza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.0-31.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-105.0105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Yan Xiaonan
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights13
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15