Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Bogdan Guskov won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 10, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupZac Pauga: Elusive strikervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Zac Pauga wins(50.0%)
Actual result: Bogdan Guskov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bogdan Guskov is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Zac Pauga has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Zac Pauga has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Zac Pauga has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Zac Pauga
Red Corner
VS
Bogdan Guskov
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Zac Pauga
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mohammed Usman · Aug 22W
vs Jordan Wright · Feb 23L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · Jun 23Bogdan Guskov
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Volkan Oezdemir · Sep 23W
KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24W
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25D
vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Zac PaugaMetricBogdan Guskov
4.46
Strikes / min
4.57
2.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
58%
Strike defense
44%
0.38
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.73Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Zac PaugaBogdan Guskov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Zac Pauga(4 fights)Bogdan Guskov(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Zac Pauga
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Bogdan Guskov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6