Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 17, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupZac Pauga: Elusive strikervsModestas Bukauskas: Striker
Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.
Model Prediction: Zac Pauga wins(61.9%)
Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Zac Pauga has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Zac Pauga
Red Corner
VS
Modestas Bukauskas
Blue Corner
+166
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-198
(66%)
38
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Zac Pauga
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mohammed Usman · Aug 22W
vs Jordan Wright · Feb 23L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Feb 24Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Zac PaugaMetricModestas Bukauskas
4.46
Strikes / min
3.24
2.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.05
58%
Strike defense
50%
0.38
TDs / 15 min
0.26
100%
Takedown defense
79%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.73Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Zac PaugaModestas Bukauskas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Zac Pauga(4 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.6-14.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Zac Pauga
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Modestas Bukauskas
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12