Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Lopes won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 14, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Brian Ortega
Red Corner
VS
Diego Lopes
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
35
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian Ortega
oldest →latest
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Diego Lopes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Sodiq Yusuff · Apr 24W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 24L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricDiego Lopes
3.84
Strikes / min
3.83
6.38
Strikes absorbed / min
4.56
49%
Strike defense
45%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.88
54%
Takedown defense
68%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.54Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap-0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Brian OrtegaDiego Lopes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Diego Lopes(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.8-31.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+126.0-126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Diego Lopes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9