Welterweight
3 Rounds
Geoff Neal won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 11, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(71.1%)
Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Geoff Neal has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
35
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Santiago Ponzinibbio
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Geoff NealMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio
5.02
Strikes / min
4.78
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.68
57%
Strike defense
61%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.60
87%
Takedown defense
71%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Geoff NealSantiago Ponzinibbio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-68.968.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14
Santiago Ponzinibbio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights20