Welterweight
5 Rounds
Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, July 16, 2017·Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(55.7%)
Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Blue Corner
-174
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+164
(38%)
37
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Santiago Ponzinibbio
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio
1.77
Strikes / min
4.78
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
4.68
48%
Strike defense
61%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.60
68%
Takedown defense
71%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonSantiago Ponzinibbio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.5-8.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-27.027.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Santiago Ponzinibbio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights20