Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Diyar Nurgozhay won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Tobias: WrestlervsDiyar Nurgozhay: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Rafael Tobias wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Diyar Nurgozhay wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diyar Nurgozhay has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Tobias has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Tobias
Red Corner
VS
Diyar Nurgozhay
Blue Corner
-174
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+146
(41%)
23
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael TobiasNo prior UFC fights on record.
Diyar NurgozhayL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Mar 25L
SUBvs Uran Satybaldiev · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael TobiasMetricDiyar Nurgozhay
2.77
Strikes / min
4.52
5.81
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
35%
Strike defense
61%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
1.37
100%
Takedown defense
80%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.04Δ 4.75 — meaningful gap+1.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Tobias(1 fights)Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.5-32.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Rafael Tobias
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights1
Diyar Nurgozhay
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3