Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lucas Fernando is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Tobias has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Tobias has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Lucas Fernando has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Tobias
oldest →L
vs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 26 Lucas FernandoNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael TobiasMetricLucas Fernando
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-3.04evenly matched on net striking-2.86
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael TobiasTargetLucas Fernando
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Lucas Fernando edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:50
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Lucas Fernando edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Lucas Fernando edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
