Welterweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 3, 2025·Des Moines, Iowa, USA, USA
Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-138
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+118
(46%)
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'1"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
oldest →latest
L
vs Michel Pereira · May 22W
KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25Daniel RodriguezW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22L
KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 24W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Santiago PonzinibbioMetricDaniel Rodriguez
4.78
Strikes / min
7.20
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
5.40
61%
Strike defense
57%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
0.51
71%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+1.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Santiago PonzinibbioDaniel Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.1-11.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-91.091.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Santiago Ponzinibbio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights20
Daniel Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14