Welterweight
3 Rounds
Santiago Ponzinibbio won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 5, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsMiguel Baeza: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins(55.6%)
Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Miguel Baeza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Miguel Baeza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Miguel Baeza is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Red Corner
VS
Miguel Baeza
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-134
(57%)
39
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25Miguel BaezaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Brown · May 20W
SUBvs Takashi Sato · Nov 20L
KOvs Khaos Williams · Nov 21L
KOvs Andre Fialho · Apr 22L
vs Punahele Soriano · Jun 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Santiago PonzinibbioMetricMiguel Baeza
4.78
Strikes / min
4.09
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
5.92
61%
Strike defense
46%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
0.36
71%
Takedown defense
54%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-1.83
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Santiago PonzinibbioMiguel Baeza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Miguel Baeza(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+54.7-54.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Santiago Ponzinibbio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights20
Miguel Baeza
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7