Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tonight
Elo1494
Elo1532
Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam PattersonUFC Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Fight begins in
Style matchup
The model's pick for this fight is locked
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson is on the undercard. Headliner picks are free — unlock the full card with a $9 monthly Fight Detective membership.
Unlock every pick — $9/monthScouting Report
- Santiago Ponzinibbio is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sam Patterson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Sam Patterson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
+357
Vegas Odds
-481
1494
1532
39
30
Orthodox
Orthodox
6'0"
6'3"
185.42 cm
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Santiago Ponzinibbio
oldest →
KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25
latestSam Patterson
oldest →
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25
vs Michael Page · Mar 26
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Santiago PonzinibbioMetricSam Patterson
4.78
Strikes / min
2.62
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
61%
Strike defense
50%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
0.82
71%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Santiago PonzinibbioSam Patterson
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Method Projection
KO / TKO81%
Historical win share: Santiago Ponzinibbio earned 58% of wins by KO/TKO.
Submission19%
Historical win share: Sam Patterson earned 50% of wins by submission.
Decision0%
Both fighters frequently end fights early.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights20
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6