Justin Gaethje
10W · 5L
Orthodox
Lightweight
60% finish rate50% as favorite73% as underdog
1521
ELO Rating
ELO RatingHow is ELO calculated?18-month recency decay · streak amplification · activity velocity · career-death penalty. Old champions can't hide behind past glory.Understanding our ELO →
1521.2Contender↗
Recency-weighted skill · finish-adjusted · streak-amplified
Division ELOHow is ELO calculated?18-month recency decay · streak amplification · activity velocity · career-death penalty. Old champions can't hide behind past glory.Understanding our ELO →
#21of 89 active
Age
37
Nov 14, 1988
Height
5'11" (180.34 cm)
Reach
177.8 cm
Win Rate
66.7%
Output & Defense
Rate-normalized career statistics (per 15 minutes, except strike rates which are per-minute)
Strikes landed / min
6.48
SLpM
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
SApM (lower is better)
Net striking
-0.57
SLpM − SApM
Strike defense
51%
Opponent strikes evaded
Takedowns / 15 min
0.33
TD_Avg
Takedown defense
74%
Opponent TDs stuffed
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.00
Sub_Avg
High-volume striker
Head-to-Head Comparison
Search for a fighter to compare side-by-side
Career Averages (per fight)
35.0
Sig. Strikes
0.1
Takedowns
0.0
Sub Attempts
How They Win
KO/TKO6 (60%)
Submission0 (0%)
Decision0 (0%)
Loss Vulnerability
KO/TKO3 (60%)
Submission2 (40%)
Decision0 (0%)
Betting Profile
Win rate when fighting as favorite vs underdog
As Favorite
50%
2W – 2L in 4 fights
As Underdog
73%
8W – 3L in 11 fights
ELO Trajectory
Skill rating evolution — hover dots for fight details
Elo Changes
Rating gained or lost in each fight
def. Paddy Pimblett
+13.51521
def. Rafael Fiziev
+7.01508
lost to Max Holloway
-4.31501
def. Dustin Poirier
+2.91505
def. Rafael Fiziev
+1.91502
lost to Charles Oliveira
-1.11500
def. Michael Chandler
+0.71501
lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov
-0.41501
def. Tony Ferguson
+0.41501
def. Donald Cerrone
+0.21501
def. Edson Barboza
+0.31500
def. James Vick
+0.21500
lost to Dustin Poirier
-0.11500
lost to Eddie Alvarez
-0.11500
def. Michael Johnson
+0.11500
Division ELO Rankings
Lightweight · Active fighters ranked by recency-weighted skill
Quillan Salkilld
1573
Chris Padilla
1550
Chris Duncan
1549
Fares Ziam
1543
Mason Jones
1543
Tom Nolan
1542
Ilia Topuria
1538
Mauricio Ruffy
1537
Fight History (15 fights)
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 8, 2025
vs Max Holloway
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 6, 2021
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 9, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019
vs James Vick
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 2, 2017
Loss
View Analysis →The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Jul 7, 2017