Rafael Natal
9W · 7L
Orthodox
Middleweight
22% finish rate64% as favorite40% as underdog
1361
ELO Rating
ELO RatingHow is ELO calculated?18-month recency decay · streak amplification · activity velocity · career-death penalty. Old champions can't hide behind past glory.Understanding our ELO →
1361.2Developing→
Recency-weighted skill · finish-adjusted · streak-amplified
Division ELOHow is ELO calculated?18-month recency decay · streak amplification · activity velocity · career-death penalty. Old champions can't hide behind past glory.Understanding our ELO →
No recent fights — out of active rankings
Age
43
Dec 25, 1982
Height
6'0" (182.88 cm)
Reach
195.58 cm
Win Rate
56.3%
Output & Defense
Rate-normalized career statistics (per 15 minutes, except strike rates which are per-minute)
Strikes landed / min
3.10
SLpM
Strikes absorbed / min
2.48
SApM (lower is better)
Net striking
+0.62
SLpM − SApM
Strike defense
57%
Opponent strikes evaded
Takedowns / 15 min
2.55
TD_Avg
Takedown defense
77%
Opponent TDs stuffed
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.50
Sub_Avg
Active wrestlerElite TD defense
Head-to-Head Comparison
Search for a fighter to compare side-by-side
Career Averages (per fight)
37.1
Sig. Strikes
2.6
Takedowns
0.6
Sub Attempts
How They Win
KO/TKO1 (11%)
Submission1 (11%)
Decision0 (0%)
Loss Vulnerability
KO/TKO4 (57%)
Submission0 (0%)
Decision0 (0%)
Betting Profile
Win rate when fighting as favorite vs underdog
As Favorite
64%
7W – 4L in 11 fights
As Underdog
40%
2W – 3L in 5 fights
ELO Trajectory
Skill rating evolution — hover dots for fight details
Elo Changes
Rating gained or lost in each fight
lost to Eryk Anders
-0.11500
lost to Tim Boetsch
0.01500
lost to Robert Whittaker
0.01500
def. Kevin Casey
0.01500
def. Uriah Hall
0.01500
def. Tom Watson
0.01500
def. Chris Camozzi
0.01500
lost to Ed Herman
0.01500
lost to Tim Kennedy
0.01500
def. Tor Troeng
0.01500
def. Joao Zeferino
0.01500
def. Sean Spencer
0.01500
lost to Andrew Craig
0.01500
def. Michael Kuiper
0.01500
def. Paul Bradley
0.01500
lost to Rich Attonito
0.01500
Division ELO Rankings
Middleweight · Active fighters ranked by recency-weighted skill
Fight History (16 fights)
vs Eryk Anders
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Jul 22, 2017
Loss
View Analysis →vs Tim Boetsch
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Apr 23, 2016
Loss
View Analysis →vs Kevin Casey
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Jan 30, 2016
vs Uriah Hall
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · May 23, 2015
vs Tom Watson
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Jan 31, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Sep 5, 2014
vs Ed Herman
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · May 10, 2014
Loss
View Analysis →vs Tim Kennedy
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Nov 6, 2013
Loss
View Analysis →vs Tor Troeng
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Sep 4, 2013
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · May 18, 2013
vs Sean Spencer
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Jan 26, 2013
vs Andrew Craig
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Jul 11, 2012
Loss
View Analysis →UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Feb 4, 2012
vs Paul Bradley
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Aug 6, 2011
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Sep 15, 2010
Loss
View Analysis →